Thaksin On Succession

According to Thaksin’s interview published in Times Online it will be shining new age after the King’s death. Apparently Thaksin puts high hopes in the Crown Prince.

Is he talking about his personal fortunes or the country, though? Rumors of Thaksin courting the Crown Prince were around even before Thaksin got elected, so it’s not surprising that Thaksin expect better treatment from him. It can’t get any worse, afterall.

On the other hand I can’t see the monarchy as being relevant to Thailand’s future, so no matter how well the Crown Prince performs, setting off the “shining age” is a bit out of his jurisdiction. If one thing the recent political upheavals taught the palace is that it should stay out of the way. Even with King Bhumibol’s unmatched reputation and authority, he doesn’t want to displease any of his subjects on any side of the political spectrum. If the Crown Prince decides to flex his muscles it would be a painful lesson – without the “barami” and without legal grounds he’d be simply slaughtered, politically, of course.

Thaksin doesn’t seem to learn that the country is run by people now, not by “elites”. He believes in his own story about “elite conspiracy”, that if he could get along with Prem he’d be set for life here. He refuses to acknowledge that Prem and coupmakers were forced to act on behalf of the people, not for personal gains or power. He refuses to acknowledge the power of massive anti-Thaksin movement that compelled the “elites” to get involved.

Two point to consider – it’s impossible that Crown Property Bureau, major shareholder in Siam Commercial Bank, had no knowledge of the bank underwriting the biggest deal in Thailand’s history. Apparently no one in the palace circles thought it would be so disastrous. Another point is that I suspect ill-fated April 2006 elections were Prem’s idea in the first place. Thaksin reportedly had consultations with the palace just on the eve of dissolving the house. There were no problems with “elites” at that time either.

Massive protests that were sparked by Shin sale and massive opposition and boycotts to the elections show that the “elites” were led by the people in this war on Thaksin, not the other way around.

If Thaksin thinks that changing palace guard can solve all his problems, which are run ins with the law and massive public outrage, he is deeply mistaken. Opposition to Thaksin is not going to stop, and the palace should try its best to stay clear of it. Officially it can only insist on everybody doing their ascribed duties – the ministers, the judges, EC and NCCC commissioners etc. This is exactly the line Abhisit has been drilling all along. Stepping outside it is very very risky for the new monarch.

It’s a pure speculation and conjecture on my part but this version seems plausible anyway.

Another thing, Thaksin is basically betting on the new generation of “ammart” while his foot soldiers are being told to fight it as a principle. It’s possible that the same red army he build to save himself would eventually spell his doom.

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