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The future looks better

Before the New Year the public was bombarded with dire predictions of a huge political upheaval and people were told to brace for the worst.

Nothing happened.

“No confidence” debate has been postponed, not only PTP has got nothing real to show, but they also must propose an alternative Prime Minister if they want to challenge the government. Should have thought about it before.

I cynically think they are just waiting for the court verdict on Thaksin’s assets as they tie all these historic democratic developments to his court case. One million march on Bangkok to finally overthrow the “ammart” somehow must be held just in time to save Thaksin’s money.

One must be either dumb or red to believe in this little coincidence.

At least when yellows were having all their “last battles” they were actually out on the streets. Reds seem to be just hiding their impotence.

Here’s an interesting quote on red prospects:

On the talk of a possible civil war, Wattanachai discounted the fear as a fantasy. He added that the red-shirt movement had the opportunity to overthrow the Abhisit Vejjajiva government last April but had failed to do so and was not likely to succeed again. The general also ruled out fear of heavy loss of life in the upcoming red-shirt protests.

Wattanachai is Surayud’s friend so his view must be indicative of what is thought in Surayud’s circles (he is a member of Privy Council, after all).

Unless reds are secretly cooking up a completely new strategy I tend to agree – they can’t possibly overthrow the state (the govt, the courts, bureaucracy, Privy Council etc) just by street protests. They had their chance last year, didn’t work.

The Khao Yai rally that finished even before it got into the news has also been a disappointment. Surely they put an unwelcome spotlight on Surayud and Privy Council by extension but that shot fell very short from the target, Surayud’s resignation, and if he really gives up the land they will have nothing else to go on. That was their only gripe that made sense to the general population.

Politically, we have seen two by-elections, in Mahasarakham and Prachinburi, that have shown PTP that they can’t easily roll over Newin even on their home turf, and stand no chance on neutral ground. Of course they sound more upbeat oficially, but if they have to fight tooth and nail in Isan, what are their chances of gaining some twenty-thirty seats to form the government?

I’m not sure they even worry about long-term prospects, what happens to them if Thaksin loses his money. What will be their use to him then? They dare not think of such unspeakable things.

Then there’s this ominous quote from UAE paper :

UAE and Thai officials are expected to sign an extradition treaty on Wednesday, a deal that Thailand hopes will lead to the UAE handing over the former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is reported to be living in Dubai.

Whatever the actual outcome, Thaksin’s looks like he is losing Dubai as a political base. Cambodia didn’t work out very well for him either. Africa, Montenegro or Nicaragua are just too far to run the revolution from.

And so the year rolls on, with main troublemakers looking rather powerless and non-threatening.

Another quote about Wattanachai I can’t make heads of tails of:

“He also ruled out the idea of another coup, saying the idea was “20 years behind its time.”

Could it mean that Surayud was very skeptical of the coup instead of being the mastermind? Could it mean that he agreed to take on PMship to save his comrades faces when they had no idea what to do after taking over?

I don’t rule that out, sounds more plausible than a massive conspiracy involving all of the Privy Council, the humongous “elites”, and even the monarchy itself.


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