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The court killed all the suspense for me with scheduling Thaksin’s verdict on Feb 26 – more than a month from now.

In the meantime the public is treated to a cacophony of predictions, scenarios, strategies and other assorted bullshit – all possible ways to keep themselves “on the edge”.

Nothing will happen. It’s a huge waste of time.

Reds won’t make a dent, parliament won’t change a thing, Thaksin won’t start an invasion from Cambodia. The only way to affect the outcome is to put pressure on the individual judges but that is not going to be allowed either.

We are in for a one huge anti-climax.

Nothing big is going to happen after the verdict either. Reds will be reds, Thaksin will be Thaksin, Prem will be Prem, and Democrats will be Democrats.

Even if Thaksin gets all his money back there’s not much he can do with it in Thailand in the short to medium term. He needs to wait until people forget him before staging a comeback, with or without the money. With the money he’d be accused of buying his way in, with all the predictable opposition. I think he’d have a better chance counting on compassion.

Without the money he could be in a deep deep shit financially and Thai politics would be the last thing on his mind, if the stories of his huge borrowings are true.

Either way, it doesn’t affect the way the country would live its live in the meantime.

Banharn and his constitution amendments push during no confidence debate might break up the coalition and force the elections sooner than Democrats hope, that would be the end of him as people in general are just not ready for a new round of instability and electioneering when things have just started looking up after years of gloom and crisis. He’d would lose more seats than he hopes to gain by changing elections rules.

I hope he’s doing this only to squeeze some money from Thaksin and so his enthusiasm will be short lived.

The only cool head these days is on Abhisit’s shoulders, he just keeps going, ignoring all the brouhaha around him. Unusually quiet Sondhi could also be a sign that PAD/NPP/KMM realize it’s not the right time to rock the boat yet. They’ve just opened their new HQs and the event was reported as very low key.

To sum it up, only untimely elections and Thaksin’s premature push back in following a court victory would have a real adverse effect, everything else could be safely ignored.


2 Responses

  1. “He needs to wait until people forget him before staging a comeback…”

    I wonder how long that will take. Let’s say ten years minimum. Thaksin is already 60 now. Will he really still be in it at 70?

    • It makes much more sense if one assumes it’s all about the money and Thaksin has no interest in politics or running the country.

      If he loses the case he will just fade away, if he wins he might be tempted to come back for more but it’s hard to imagine any monetary pay offs – he has no significant business interests left here, and whatever his plans were for investing Shin proceeds it’s not likely to happen anymore.

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