Red rally day 2

Update: Well, the police estimate the number at the rally site of only 40,000 as of 9pm. TV shows remains of the red caravan still passing through Ayutthaya checkpoint but the main party is already in Bangkok. Doesn’t look like they get even a hundred thousand.

I don’t think they can organize a second wave coming from upcountry, all estimates point to only 10-20k in Ayutthaya, where all northern and central reds converged before moving to Bangkok, the total number still looks short of a hundred thousand, even with reds from Korat added in.

That would be just a regular big demo that won’t achieve anything.

With low numbers even government instigated violence won’t add anything to their cause, and if they don’t disappear by Monday they would turn Bangkokians firmly in favor of dispercing them by force.

Drove in a big circle around eastern Bangkok, running some errands. Not a single red shirt in sight though people everywhere are glued to their TVs.

Sorayuth on Channel 3 (most watched newsman in the country) made a big, emotional story about a slain policeman that underlined the irrelevance of the red cause, edging people to ask themselves: “Who are these loose nuts comparing to the real heroes?” Perfect distraction.

Anyway, tonight will be a good time to make final estimates of how big the rally would be. Tomorrow we will see how long it could last. So far Bangkokians look overprepared, and reds are two days late for the party. That is annoying.

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