Battle of attrition drags on

It’s somewhat depressing to try and resume blogging on this stalemate. Daily developments are too trivial and nothing seems to be worth mentioning.

Last night the CAPO guy promised some action when he announced new rules of engagement – no more pushing and shoving, the only physical contact will be with bullets, be they rubber or live. Interesting, I thought, that would certainly reduce injuries from hand to hand combat with batons and assorted red weaponry, like sharpened bamboo sticks.

Another day has passed with nothing happening, however, except “lak si”, multi colored shirt movement is gaining strength:

Lak Si at Wong Wian

If it goes like this, and PAD’s deadline expires and genuine yellows join in, we’ll soon have a far bigger crowd demonstrating against red demonstration for democracy.

Lak Si leaders promised 100,000 this weekend, a tall order but still a lot of people.

The army and the government have very little time left to mount a red dispersal operation, until the end of the week at most, before the hell breaks loose and everybody, and I mean everybody you can think of, starts blaming them for incompetency and inefficiency.

Electorally speaking, perhaps it would be wiser for Abhisit to cut losses and dissolve the parliament now than clearly and irrevocably prove that he can’t be trusted with protecting the country. He could still fire Anupong, though, and buy himself another week, but one way or another, sooner or later, he should face his red demons. That is simply unavoidable.

Would it mean a civil war? Quite possibly, as Anupong admitted that there will be pockets of resistance throughout the country even if they successfully manage to finish Rajprasong occupation.

Should the government back off to preserve the peace? It could try, but reds want war, not peace. They don’t want to deal with anybody, they want only total capitulation, which is unacceptable to the rest of the country.

If there is going to be civil war, now is the best time, not after reds assumed power and tipped the balance of political and military power to their side. Opposition to their rule would be massive and if the civil war breaks out then, it would be far bloodier and more brutal than now, when all they have to fight with is bamboo sticks and molotov cocktails.

I’m saying that appeasing them now would only make them bolder and stronger and more difficult to deal with later, and that time will inevitably come, first, perhaps, in the form of renewed yellow anti-protest protest next week.

So, the government has no other choice but to physically subdue the reds now, when the whole country demands it to, however difficult it might be.

Oh, and questions about legitimacy of reds as a democratic movement were answered weeks ago, when they broke into and disrupted the work of the government and parliament and Election Commission and “rescued” Arisman from inept cops.

They do not abide by country’s laws anymore, they have to be dealt with accordingly, as outlaws, not as people with grievances making their voice heard. That show is over, now they are already at war with the government, according to Arisman, or threaten the government with civil war, as Weng did the other day.

Abhisit should surely address their grievances and engage in more talks and negotiations, but in tandem with dispersing the protest at Rajprasong and detaining the leaders with outstanding arrest warrants.

Red leaders themselves got into a dead end situation. They have no place to go but to jail, or to war. In case of the war they might be sacrificed by their own “ronins” to try an raise red anger throughout the country.

The only way out for them is a creation of a new Thai state, overwriting the existing laws and throwing away court decisions – ie victory in a civil war, or a red people coup or whatever they would call it. Good luck with that, kids.

They listened only to themselves for too long to believe that they country would allows itself to be overrun by bamboo stick revolutionaries.

The only thing keeping them alive is that their enemies are humane enough not to go out and grant them the wish of “dying for democracy”. These self-proclaimed “prais” don’t value their lives as much as their “ammart masters” who, in turn, have to endure daily admonitions for being bloodthirsty from people they adamantly refuse to harm.

The time will have to come, however, if not now than in a couple of months time or before the end of the year – reds WILL be confronted, it’s inevitable.

As I type this, another red-laksi confrontation is heating up at Silom. So far it’s only shouting, but it’s not even weekend yet.